Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 32Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · BMO Field
Toronto FC
2–1FULL TIME
DC United
52% Toronto
22% Draw
26% DC
OUR PICK
Toronto FC to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.29
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.94X4.4723.85
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Toronto FC form
LWLWDA Atlanta United FC3–1
H DC United2–1
A Columbus Crew4–2
A New York Red Bulls0–2
H Orlando City SC3–3
DC United form
LLLLLA Columbus Crew3–0
A Toronto FC2–1
H FC Cincinnati0–2
A FC Cincinnati2–1
A Orlando City SC4–1
Head to head
2
Toronto
1
Draw
2
DC
Oct 2026Toronto FC – DC United2–1
Jul 2026DC United – Toronto FC2–1
May 2025Toronto FC – DC United2–0
Feb 2025DC United – Toronto FC2–2
Aug 2024Toronto FC – DC United1–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Toronto FC slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.90 for Toronto FC, 1.29 for DC United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.