PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 7Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estádio João Cardoso

Tondela

7th · 15 pts

1–0FULL TIME

Torreense

12th · 10 pts

47% Tondela

27% Draw

26% Torreense

OUR PICK

Tondela to win

Model probability 47% · fair odds

2.12

Expected goals

1.41 – 0.97

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.12X3.7123.86

Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.74

Both scoreGG2.01NG1.88

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.46

Over 1.5

69%

Over/Under 2.5@1.74

Under 2.5

58%

Both teams to score@1.88

53%

Double chance@1.35

74%

Season stats

TondelaTorreense

1.3Goals per game0.9

1.1Conceded per game1.1

1.67Points per game1.11

56%Win rate22%

2Goal difference-2

12Form, last 5 (pts)8

Tondela form

WLWWW

H Felgueiras 19323–2

A AVS2–1

H Alverca2–0

H Torreense1–0

A Imortal Albufeira1–5

Torreense form

DWLLL

A Portimonense0–0

H Amarante1–0

A Ferencvarosi TC4–1

H Sunderland1–2

A Tondela1–0

Head to head

Tondela

Draw

Torreense

Oct 2026Tondela – Torreense1–0

Mar 2025Tondela – Torreense2–2

Oct 2024Torreense – Tondela0–2

Mar 2024Torreense – Tondela0–1

Nov 2023Torreense – Tondela1–1

Segunda Liga table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Sporting CP B9+821

2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719

3Benfica B9+517

4Penafiel8+1016

5Farense9+415

6Academica9+315

7Tondela9+215

8Vizela9+114

9União de Leiria9+214

10AVS9+112

Match preview

Our model makes Tondela slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.41 for Tondela, 0.97 for Torreense), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Tondela sit 7th on 15 points; Torreense are 12th on 10.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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