Over 1.5 goals@1.68
Over 1.5
60%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 9Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estádio João Cardoso
Tondela
7th · 15 pts3–2FULL TIME
Felgueiras 1932
17th · 7 pts47% Tondela
30% Draw
24% Felgueiras
OUR PICK
Tondela to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.78
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X3.3724.25
Goals 2.5Over2.86Under1.48
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Under 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.31
1X
76%
Season stats
TondelaFelgueiras 19321.3Goals per game1.0
1.1Conceded per game1.3
1.67Points per game0.78
56%Win rate11%
2Goal difference-3
12Form, last 5 (pts)1
Tondela form
WLWWWH Felgueiras 19323–2
A AVS2–1
H Alverca2–0
H Torreense1–0
A Imortal Albufeira1–5
Felgueiras 1932 form
LDWLWA Tondela3–2
H Lusitânia Lourosa2–2
H Fafe1–0
A Benfica B1–0
A Naval 18930–2
Head to head
2
Tondela
1
Draw
1
Felgueiras
Nov 2026Tondela – Felgueiras 19323–2
Feb 2025Felgueiras 1932 – Tondela1–0
Aug 2024Tondela – Felgueiras 19321–1
Nov 2020Felgueiras 1932 – Tondela0–1
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Tondela slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (1.23 for Tondela, 0.78 for Felgueiras 1932), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tondela sit 7th on 15 points; Felgueiras 1932 are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.