Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
5th · 24 pts02:00KICK-OFF WAT
Monterrey
9th · 21 pts53% Toluca
21% Draw
26% Monterrey
OUR PICK
Toluca to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
2.17 – 1.50
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.8523.77
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
TolucaMonterrey2.1Goals per game1.9
1.4Conceded per game1.5
1.60Points per game1.50
40%Win rate43%
10Goal difference5
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
Toluca form
DDDDLA Club America2–2
A Leon1–1
H Club Tijuana2–2
H Atletico San Luis1–1
A Tigres UANL3–2
Monterrey form
DLWWDH Club Tijuana3–3
H Guadalajara Chivas0–1
A Puebla1–4
H CF Pachuca2–1
A Club America1–1
Head to head
3
Toluca
0
Draw
2
Monterrey
Oct 2026Monterrey – Toluca2–1
Sept 2026Toluca – Monterrey2–0
Jan 2026Monterrey – Toluca0–1
Dec 2025Toluca – Monterrey3–2
Dec 2025Monterrey – Toluca1–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Toluca slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.17 for Toluca, 1.50 for Monterrey), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Toluca sit 5th on 24 points; Monterrey are 9th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.