Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Estadio Nemesio Diez
Toluca
5th · 24 pts2–2FULL TIME
Club Tijuana
6th · 22 pts53% Toluca
22% Draw
25% Club
OUR PICK
Toluca to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.32
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X4.6123.98
Goals 2.5Over1.55Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.55
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
TolucaClub Tijuana2.1Goals per game1.7
1.4Conceded per game1.4
1.60Points per game1.47
40%Win rate33%
10Goal difference4
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Toluca form
DDDDLA Club America2–2
A Leon1–1
H Club Tijuana2–2
H Atletico San Luis1–1
A Tigres UANL3–2
Club Tijuana form
DDWDDA Monterrey3–3
A Club America1–1
H Santos Laguna4–1
A Toluca2–2
H Puebla0–0
Head to head
3
Toluca
2
Draw
0
Club
Oct 2026Toluca – Club Tijuana2–2
Feb 2026Toluca – Club Tijuana1–0
Oct 2025Club Tijuana – Toluca0–0
Jan 2025Club Tijuana – Toluca2–4
Sept 2024Toluca – Club Tijuana4–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model makes Toluca slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.00 for Toluca, 1.32 for Club Tijuana), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Toluca sit 5th on 24 points; Club Tijuana are 6th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.