Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Ajinomoto Stadium
Tokyo Verdy
17th · 11 pts0–4FULL TIME
FC Tokyo
1st · 30 pts13% Tokyo
22% Draw
65% FC
OUR PICK
FC Tokyo to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
0.69 – 1.84
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.49X4.5921.54
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.25NG1.72
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.72
NG
58%
Double chance@1.15
X2
87%
Season stats
Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo0.8Goals per game2.4
1.7Conceded per game0.6
0.85Points per game2.31
15%Win rate69%
-11Goal difference23
7Form, last 5 (pts)13
Tokyo Verdy form
WWDLLA V-varen Nagasaki1–2
H Avispa Fukuoka3–1
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–2
H FC Tokyo0–4
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2
FC Tokyo form
WWDWLA Fagiano Okayama0–4
H Mito Hollyhock6–0
H Kashiwa Reysol0–0
A Tokyo Verdy0–4
A Mito Hollyhock1–0
Head to head
0
Tokyo
2
Draw
3
FC
Oct 2026Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo0–4
May 2026FC Tokyo – Tokyo Verdy2–1
Mar 2026Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo0–0
Sept 2025FC Tokyo – Tokyo Verdy1–0
Apr 2025Tokyo Verdy – FC Tokyo2–2
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes FC Tokyo clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.69 for Tokyo Verdy, 1.84 for FC Tokyo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tokyo Verdy sit 17th on 11 points; FC Tokyo are 1st on 30.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.