Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
65%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Ajinomoto Stadium
Tokyo Verdy
17th · 11 pts3–1FULL TIME
Avispa Fukuoka
20th · 7 pts35% Tokyo
29% Draw
36% Avispa
OUR PICK
Avispa Fukuoka to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.75
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.13
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.87X3.4622.75
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
Tokyo VerdyAvispa Fukuoka0.8Goals per game1.0
1.7Conceded per game1.8
0.85Points per game0.54
15%Win rate15%
-11Goal difference-11
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
Tokyo Verdy form
WWDLLA V-varen Nagasaki1–2
H Avispa Fukuoka3–1
A Yokohama F. Marinos2–2
H FC Tokyo0–4
H Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–2
Avispa Fukuoka form
LLLLLA JEF United Chiba3–0
A Tokyo Verdy3–1
H Gamba Osaka1–2
A Machida Zelvia3–0
A Sagan Tosu2–1
Head to head
2
Tokyo
2
Draw
1
Avispa
Oct 2026Tokyo Verdy – Avispa Fukuoka3–1
Jan 2026Tokyo Verdy – Avispa Fukuoka3–4
Nov 2025Tokyo Verdy – Avispa Fukuoka0–0
May 2025Avispa Fukuoka – Tokyo Verdy0–0
Jul 2024Avispa Fukuoka – Tokyo Verdy0–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Tokyo Verdy 35%, the draw 29%, Avispa Fukuoka 36%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.10 for Tokyo Verdy, 1.13 for Avispa Fukuoka), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tokyo Verdy sit 17th on 11 points; Avispa Fukuoka are 20th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.