Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ALBSuperliga · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Arena Kombetare
Tirana
5th · 12 pts1–0FULL TIME
Laci
8th · 11 pts48% Tirana
24% Draw
28% Laci
OUR PICK
Tirana to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.24
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X4.1623.54
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
TiranaLaci1.4Goals per game1.0
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.20Points per game1.10
30%Win rate30%
-1Goal difference-4
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
Tirana form
LDLWWH Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–2
H Dinamo Tirana1–1
A Vllaznia Shkodër2–0
H Laci1–0
A Partizani1–3
Laci form
LDWLLA AF Elbasani2–1
A Skenderbeu Korce1–1
H Vora1–0
A Tirana1–0
H Egnatia Rrogozhinë0–2
Head to head
2
Tirana
2
Draw
1
Laci
Oct 2026Tirana – Laci1–0
Mar 2025Tirana – Laci4–1
Dec 2024Laci – Tirana3–1
Oct 2024Tirana – Laci1–1
Aug 2024Laci – Tirana0–0
Superliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Egnatia Rrogozhinë10+1124
2Teuta Durrës10+1020
3Dinamo Tirana10+317
4AF Elbasani10+114
5Tirana10-112
6Vora10-412
7Skenderbeu Korce10-111
8Laci10-411
9Vllaznia Shkodër10-59
10Partizani10-107
Match preview
Our model makes Tirana slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.68 for Tirana, 1.24 for Laci), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tirana sit 5th on 12 points; Laci are 8th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.