Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANL
15th · 15 pts3–2FULL TIME
Toluca
5th · 24 pts23% Tigres
24% Draw
53% Toluca
OUR PICK
Toluca to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.66
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.44X4.0921.88
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.98
Both scoreGG1.96NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.96
GG
51%
Double chance@1.29
X2
77%
Season stats
Tigres UANLToluca1.0Goals per game2.1
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.00Points per game1.60
20%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference10
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Tigres UANL form
LDLDWA CF Pachuca3–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–1
H Leon0–2
A Guadalajara Chivas1–1
H Toluca3–2
Toluca form
DDDDLA Club America2–2
A Leon1–1
H Club Tijuana2–2
H Atletico San Luis1–1
A Tigres UANL3–2
Head to head
0
Tigres
0
Draw
0
Toluca
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model makes Toluca slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.99 for Tigres UANL, 1.66 for Toluca), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points; Toluca are 5th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.