Over 1.5 goals@1.41
Over 1.5
71%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANL
15th · 15 pts0–2FULL TIME
Leon
7th · 22 pts37% Tigres
27% Draw
36% Leon
OUR PICK
Tigres UANL to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.72
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.24
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.72X3.6922.76
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.83
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Tigres UANLLeon1.0Goals per game1.5
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.00Points per game1.47
20%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference2
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Tigres UANL form
LDLDWA CF Pachuca3–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–1
H Leon0–2
A Guadalajara Chivas1–1
H Toluca3–2
Leon form
LDWLDA Cruz Azul2–1
H Toluca1–1
A Tigres UANL0–2
H Club America3–5
A Puebla1–1
Head to head
1
Tigres
2
Draw
2
Leon
Oct 2026Tigres UANL – Leon0–2
Feb 2026Leon – Tigres UANL1–2
Sept 2025Tigres UANL – Leon0–0
Feb 2025Leon – Tigres UANL1–0
Sept 2024Tigres UANL – Leon2–2
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Tigres UANL 37%, the draw 27%, Leon 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.72 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.25 for Tigres UANL, 1.24 for Leon), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points; Leon are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.