Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio Universitario
Tigres UANL
15th · 15 pts00:00KICK-OFF WAT
Cruz Azul
3rd · 29 pts27% Tigres
23% Draw
50% Cruz
OUR PICK
Cruz Azul to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.84
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.69X4.3822.00
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Tigres UANLCruz Azul1.0Goals per game2.3
1.5Conceded per game1.6
1.00Points per game1.93
20%Win rate60%
-7Goal difference10
5Form, last 5 (pts)13
Tigres UANL form
LDLDWA CF Pachuca3–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–1
H Leon0–2
A Guadalajara Chivas1–1
H Toluca3–2
Cruz Azul form
WWWWDH Leon2–1
A Club Queretaro1–3
A CF Pachuca1–2
H FC Juarez5–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas3–3
Head to head
0
Tigres
3
Draw
2
Cruz
Feb 2026Cruz Azul – Tigres UANL2–1
Dec 2025Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul1–1
Dec 2025Cruz Azul – Tigres UANL1–1
Oct 2025Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul1–1
May 2025Cruz Azul – Tigres UANL1–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Cruz Azul slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.30 for Tigres UANL, 1.84 for Cruz Azul), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tigres UANL sit 15th on 15 points; Cruz Azul are 3rd on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.