Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
ARGLiga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 16Sunday, 8 November 2026
Tigre
22:00KICK-OFF WAT
Sarmiento Junin
55% Tigre
27% Draw
18% Sarmiento
OUR PICK
Tigre to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.71
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X3.7325.47
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.58
Both scoreGG2.42NG1.64
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.64
NG
61%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Tigre form
WLDLLA Huracan0–2
H Atletico Tucuman0–1
A Independ. Rivadavia2–2
H Banfield1–2
A Argentinos JRS2–1
Sarmiento Junin form
LLDDWH Rosario Central1–2
A Gimnasia L.P.2–0
H Barracas Central1–1
H River Plate1–1
A Aldosivi1–3
Head to head
1
Tigre
2
Draw
2
Sarmiento
Apr 2026Sarmiento Junin – Tigre1–0
Aug 2024Sarmiento Junin – Tigre0–0
Jan 2024Tigre – Sarmiento Junin0–0
Aug 2023Sarmiento Junin – Tigre2–0
Apr 2023Tigre – Sarmiento Junin1–0
Liga Profesional Argentina table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Estudiantes L.P.16+1231
2Boca Juniors16+1330
3Velez Sarsfield16+628
4Talleres Cordoba16+426
5Independiente16+424
6Lanus16+324
7San Lorenzo16022
8Union Santa Fe16+421
9Instituto Cordoba16021
10Defensa Y Justicia16-319
Match preview
Our model makes Tigre clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.45 for Tigre, 0.71 for Sarmiento Junin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.