Over 1.5 goals@1.81
Over 1.5
55%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Alfredo Beranger
Temperley
2–1FULL TIME
Nueva Chicago
54% Temperley
29% Draw
17% Nueva
OUR PICK
Temperley to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.57
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X3.3926.04
Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.39
Both scoreGG3.04NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Under 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
69%
Double chance@1.20
1X
83%
Temperley form
DLDWWA Club Atlético Güemes2–2
H Chacarita Juniors0–1
A San Martin S.J.1–1
H Nueva Chicago2–1
H Gimnasia Jujuy2–1
Nueva Chicago form
LDLLLA Chacarita Juniors2–0
H San Martin S.J.1–1
H Gimnasia Jujuy0–1
A Temperley2–1
H Deportivo Maipu0–1
Head to head
3
Temperley
2
Draw
0
Nueva
Oct 2026Temperley – Nueva Chicago2–1
May 2026Nueva Chicago – Temperley1–1
Oct 2025Temperley – Nueva Chicago3–0
Jun 2025Nueva Chicago – Temperley0–1
Oct 2024Temperley – Nueva Chicago0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Temperley clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.28 for Temperley, 0.57 for Nueva Chicago), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.