Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Sportpark Schoonenberg
Telstar
16th · 9 pts2–2FULL TIME
ADO Den Haag
17th · 6 pts53% Telstar
22% Draw
25% ADO
OUR PICK
Telstar to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.27
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X4.5023.96
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
TelstarADO Den Haag1.5Goals per game1.2
2.1Conceded per game2.2
0.82Points per game0.55
18%Win rate9%
-7Goal difference-11
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Telstar form
WLLLDH Utrecht4–2
H Almere City FC0–2
A GO Ahead Eagles3–2
H Feyenoord3–4
H ADO Den Haag2–2
ADO Den Haag form
LDLWDA PEC Zwolle1–0
A Excelsior '311–1
H Heerenveen2–3
H PSV Eindhoven2–1
A Telstar2–2
Head to head
2
Telstar
3
Draw
0
ADO
Oct 2026Telstar – ADO Den Haag2–2
May 2025ADO Den Haag – Telstar0–1
May 2025Telstar – ADO Den Haag2–0
Apr 2025Telstar – ADO Den Haag1–1
Sept 2024ADO Den Haag – Telstar1–1
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Telstar slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.92 for Telstar, 1.27 for ADO Den Haag), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Telstar sit 16th on 9 points; ADO Den Haag are 17th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.