Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 9Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Unilever Stadium Shintomi
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
6th · 23 pts1–1FULL TIME
Omiya Ardija
5th · 24 pts42% Tegevajaro
24% Draw
34% Omiya
OUR PICK
Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.42
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X4.1622.96
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Tegevajaro MiyazakiOmiya Ardija1.5Goals per game1.8
1.1Conceded per game1.2
1.64Points per game1.71
43%Win rate43%
5Goal difference8
11Form, last 5 (pts)7
Tegevajaro Miyazaki form
WWWDDH Oita Trinita2–0
A Montedio Yamagata0–2
H Blaublitz Akita2–1
H Jubilo Iwata1–1
A Kataller Toyama1–1
Omiya Ardija form
WDLLWA Vegalta Sendai1–2
H Yokohama FC2–2
H Kataller Toyama0–3
A Sagan Tosu2–1
H Vanraure Hachinohe3–1
Head to head
0
Tegevajaro
1
Draw
2
Omiya
Oct 2026Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Omiya Ardija1–1
Jul 2024Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Omiya Ardija0–2
Mar 2024Omiya Ardija – Tegevajaro Miyazaki3–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 42%, the draw 24%, Omiya Ardija 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.61 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, 1.42 for Omiya Ardija), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki sit 6th on 23 points; Omiya Ardija are 5th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.