Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Unilever Stadium Shintomi
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
6th · 23 pts1–1FULL TIME
Jubilo Iwata
11th · 19 pts48% Tegevajaro
26% Draw
25% Jubilo
OUR PICK
Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.98
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.07X3.7823.95
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.79
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.92
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.92
NG
52%
Double chance@1.34
1X
75%
Season stats
Tegevajaro MiyazakiJubilo Iwata1.5Goals per game1.1
1.1Conceded per game1.1
1.64Points per game1.36
43%Win rate36%
5Goal difference1
11Form, last 5 (pts)9
Tegevajaro Miyazaki form
WWWDDH Oita Trinita2–0
A Montedio Yamagata0–2
H Blaublitz Akita2–1
H Jubilo Iwata1–1
A Kataller Toyama1–1
Jubilo Iwata form
WDDDLH Sagan Tosu2–0
A Iwaki1–1
H Oita Trinita0–0
A Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–1
H Kawasaki Frontale0–4
Head to head
2
Tegevajaro
1
Draw
0
Jubilo
Oct 2026Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Jubilo Iwata1–1
Aug 2026Jubilo Iwata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–1
Jun 2024Jubilo Iwata – Tegevajaro Miyazaki1–2
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Tegevajaro Miyazaki slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.46 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki, 0.98 for Jubilo Iwata), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki sit 6th on 23 points; Jubilo Iwata are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.