Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 24 October 2026 · Al Lang Stadium
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1st · 61 pts2–0FULL TIME
Sporting JAX
13th · 14 pts87% Tampa
9% Draw
4% Sporting
OUR PICK
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win
Model probability 87% · fair odds
1.15
Expected goals
3.42 – 0.71
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.15X11.31222.86
Goals 2.5Over1.29Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.05
1X
96%
Season stats
Tampa Bay RowdiesSporting JAX1.7Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game2.6
2.03Points per game0.47
60%Win rate10%
26Goal difference-46
9Form, last 5 (pts)0
Tampa Bay Rowdies form
DWWWLH Miami FC1–1
H Sporting JAX2–0
H Detroit City1–0
A Indy Eleven1–3
H Miami FC1–2
Sporting JAX form
LLLLLA Tampa Bay Rowdies2–0
H Louisville City0–2
H Birmingham Legion0–1
A Miami FC4–1
H Loudoun United1–4
Head to head
0
Tampa
0
Draw
0
Sporting
These sides haven't met recently.
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies clear favourites, giving them a 87% chance of winning against 9% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (3.42 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, 0.71 for Sporting JAX), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points; Sporting JAX are 13th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.