Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
80%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 3 October 2026 · Al Lang Stadium
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1st · 61 pts1–2FULL TIME
Miami FC
8th · 36 pts72% Tampa
17% Draw
11% Miami
OUR PICK
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.39
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.75
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.39X5.7429.34
Goals 2.5Over1.72Under2.25
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.12
1X
89%
Season stats
Tampa Bay RowdiesMiami FC1.7Goals per game1.3
0.9Conceded per game1.6
2.03Points per game1.20
60%Win rate30%
26Goal difference-10
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
Tampa Bay Rowdies form
DWWWLH Miami FC1–1
H Sporting JAX2–0
H Detroit City1–0
A Indy Eleven1–3
H Miami FC1–2
Miami FC form
DLLWWA Tampa Bay Rowdies1–1
H Charleston Battery1–2
H Loudoun United0–2
A Tampa Bay Rowdies1–2
H Sporting JAX4–1
Head to head
3
Tampa
1
Draw
1
Miami
Oct 2026Tampa Bay Rowdies – Miami FC1–1
Oct 2026Tampa Bay Rowdies – Miami FC1–2
Jul 2026Miami FC – Tampa Bay Rowdies2–3
May 2026Miami FC – Tampa Bay Rowdies1–4
Jun 2025Tampa Bay Rowdies – Miami FC2–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.39 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.28 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, 0.75 for Miami FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points; Miami FC are 8th on 36.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.