Over 1.5 goals@1.82
Over 1.5
55%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSaturday, 17 October 2026 · Al Lang Stadium
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1st · 61 pts1–0FULL TIME
Detroit City
3rd · 51 pts43% Tampa
32% Draw
25% Detroit
OUR PICK
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.31
Expected goals
1.09 – 0.75
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.31X3.1524.01
Goals 2.5Over3.37Under1.39
Both scoreGG2.70NG1.54
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.39
Under 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.54
NG
65%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
Tampa Bay RowdiesDetroit City1.7Goals per game1.1
0.9Conceded per game0.7
2.03Points per game1.70
60%Win rate47%
26Goal difference13
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Tampa Bay Rowdies form
DWWWLH Miami FC1–1
H Sporting JAX2–0
H Detroit City1–0
A Indy Eleven1–3
H Miami FC1–2
Detroit City form
LDLWWH Hartford Athletic1–2
A Louisville City0–0
A Tampa Bay Rowdies1–0
H Rhode Island1–0
H Birmingham Legion1–0
Head to head
1
Tampa
2
Draw
2
Detroit
Oct 2026Tampa Bay Rowdies – Detroit City1–0
Aug 2026Detroit City – Tampa Bay Rowdies1–0
Oct 2025Tampa Bay Rowdies – Detroit City1–1
Aug 2025Detroit City – Tampa Bay Rowdies2–0
Nov 2024Detroit City – Tampa Bay Rowdies1–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model makes Tampa Bay Rowdies slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 32% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.31 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (1.09 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, 0.75 for Detroit City), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points; Detroit City are 3rd on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.