Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
AUSA-League · Matchday 1Friday, 16 October 2026 · Sydney Football Stadium
Sydney
5th · 4 pts0–0FULL TIME
Western Sydney Wanderers
2nd · 5 pts35% Sydney
24% Draw
42% Western
OUR PICK
Western Sydney Wanderers to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.61
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.89X4.1722.41
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.63
GG
61%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
SydneyWestern Sydney Wanderers1.0Goals per game1.7
1.0Conceded per game0.7
1.33Points per game1.67
33%Win rate33%
0Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Sydney form
LWDLWA Melbourne City2–1
H Adelaide United2–1
H Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
H Melbourne Victory0–2
A SD Raiders0–1
Western Sydney Wanderers form
DWDWWA Macarthur0–0
H Auckland5–2
A Sydney0–0
H Central Coast Mariners5–1
A Auckland1–3
Head to head
2
Sydney
2
Draw
1
Western
Oct 2026Sydney – Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
Apr 2026Western Sydney Wanderers – Sydney0–2
Jan 2026Sydney – Western Sydney Wanderers4–1
Nov 2025Western Sydney Wanderers – Sydney1–0
Feb 2025Sydney – Western Sydney Wanderers3–3
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Sydney 35%, the draw 24%, Western Sydney Wanderers 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.45 for Sydney, 1.61 for Western Sydney Wanderers), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sydney sit 5th on 4 points; Western Sydney Wanderers are 2nd on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.