Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
AUSA-League · Matchday 4Friday, 6 November 2026 · Sydney Football Stadium
Sydney
5th · 4 pts09:40KICK-OFF WAT
Central Coast Mariners
10th · 2 pts49% Sydney
26% Draw
24% Central
OUR PICK
Sydney to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.96
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.03X3.8124.08
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.79
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
SydneyCentral Coast Mariners1.0Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game0.67
33%Win rate0%
0Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)2
Sydney form
LWDLWA Melbourne City2–1
H Adelaide United2–1
H Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
H Melbourne Victory0–2
A SD Raiders0–1
Central Coast Mariners form
DLDLLA Melbourne Victory1–1
A Wellington Phoenix2–0
H Newcastle Jets2–2
A Western Sydney Wanderers5–1
A Vanuatu United1–0
Head to head
3
Sydney
1
Draw
1
Central
Dec 2025Central Coast Mariners – Sydney1–2
Oct 2025Sydney – Central Coast Mariners2–0
Jan 2025Sydney – Central Coast Mariners4–1
Dec 2024Central Coast Mariners – Sydney2–1
May 2024Central Coast Mariners – Sydney0–0
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Sydney slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.48 for Sydney, 0.96 for Central Coast Mariners), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sydney sit 5th on 4 points; Central Coast Mariners are 10th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.