Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
AUSA-League · Matchday 2Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Sydney Football Stadium
Sydney
5th · 4 pts2–1FULL TIME
Adelaide United
12th · 0 pts56% Sydney
24% Draw
20% Adelaide
OUR PICK
Sydney to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.79
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.90
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.79X4.1424.99
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.91
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.93
NG
52%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
SydneyAdelaide United1.0Goals per game0.5
1.0Conceded per game3.0
1.33Points per game0.00
33%Win rate0%
0Goal difference-5
4Form, last 5 (pts)0
Sydney form
LWDLWA Melbourne City2–1
H Adelaide United2–1
H Western Sydney Wanderers0–0
H Melbourne Victory0–2
A SD Raiders0–1
Adelaide United form
LLLWWA Perth Glory4–0
H Home United0–2
A Sydney2–1
A BG Pathum United1–2
A Perth Glory1–3
Head to head
3
Sydney
0
Draw
2
Adelaide
Oct 2026Sydney – Adelaide United2–1
Feb 2026Sydney – Adelaide United1–2
Oct 2025Adelaide United – Sydney2–1
Apr 2025Adelaide United – Sydney2–3
Feb 2025Sydney – Adelaide United4–1
A-League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Wellington Phoenix3+69
2Western Sydney Wanderers3+35
3Macarthur3+15
4Brisbane Roar2+14
5Sydney304
6Auckland3-14
7Melbourne City3-14
8Perth Glory3+23
9Melbourne Victory3-12
10Central Coast Mariners3-22
Match preview
Our model makes Sydney clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.79 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.68 for Sydney, 0.90 for Adelaide United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sydney sit 5th on 4 points; Adelaide United are 12th on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.