Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
67%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · County Ground
Swindon Town
13th · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Walsall
3rd · 22 pts27% Swindon
28% Draw
45% Walsall
OUR PICK
Walsall to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.24
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.32
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.64X3.5922.24
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.67
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.67
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.38
X2
73%
Season stats
Swindon TownWalsall1.1Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.36Points per game1.69
36%Win rate38%
-2Goal difference9
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Swindon Town form
WDWDLH Rotherham2–1
A Bristol Rovers0–0
A Barnet1–3
H Walsall1–1
H Crewe0–1
Walsall form
WLWDWA Colchester1–3
H Salford City2–4
H Oldham3–0
A Swindon Town1–1
H Fulham U213–2
Head to head
2
Swindon
1
Draw
2
Walsall
Oct 2026Swindon Town – Walsall1–1
Apr 2026Swindon Town – Walsall2–1
Aug 2025Walsall – Swindon Town2–1
Mar 2025Walsall – Swindon Town0–1
Aug 2024Swindon Town – Walsall0–4
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Walsall slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.24 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (0.97 for Swindon Town, 1.32 for Walsall), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Swindon Town sit 13th on 19 points; Walsall are 3rd on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.