Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
68%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · County Ground
Swindon Town
13th · 19 pts0–1FULL TIME
Crewe
4th · 22 pts43% Swindon
28% Draw
30% Crewe
OUR PICK
Swindon Town to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.35
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.05
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.35X3.6223.35
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.38
12
72%
Season stats
Swindon TownCrewe1.1Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.36Points per game1.57
36%Win rate36%
-2Goal difference0
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Swindon Town form
WDWDLH Rotherham2–1
A Bristol Rovers0–0
A Barnet1–3
H Walsall1–1
H Crewe0–1
Crewe form
DLLWWH Barnet1–1
A Chesterfield5–1
A Exeter City2–0
H Rochdale3–2
A Swindon Town0–1
Head to head
1
Swindon
2
Draw
2
Crewe
Oct 2026Swindon Town – Crewe0–1
Feb 2026Swindon Town – Crewe1–2
Aug 2025Crewe – Swindon Town0–3
Jan 2025Swindon Town – Crewe0–0
Aug 2024Crewe – Swindon Town0–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Swindon Town slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.31 for Swindon Town, 1.05 for Crewe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Swindon Town sit 13th on 19 points; Crewe are 4th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.