Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland
20th · 5 pts0–0FULL TIME
Leeds
11th · 11 pts25% Sunderland
26% Draw
49% Leeds
OUR PICK
Leeds to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.47
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.06X3.7922.04
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.78
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.33
X2
75%
Season stats
SunderlandLeeds0.8Goals per game1.0
1.9Conceded per game0.9
0.56Points per game1.22
11%Win rate22%
-10Goal difference1
1Form, last 5 (pts)3
Sunderland form
LWDDLA Coventry3–1
H Brentford3–2
H Leeds0–0
A Lech Poznan1–1
A Bournemouth2–0
Leeds form
LDDLDA Bournemouth2–0
A Sunderland0–0
H Manchester United1–1
A Arsenal2–1
H Crystal Palace0–0
Head to head
1
Sunderland
2
Draw
2
Leeds
Oct 2026Sunderland – Leeds0–0
Jul 2026Sunderland – Leeds0–1
Mar 2026Leeds – Sunderland0–1
Dec 2025Sunderland – Leeds1–1
Feb 2025Leeds – Sunderland2–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Leeds slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.96 for Sunderland, 1.47 for Leeds), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sunderland sit 20th on 5 points; Leeds are 11th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.