WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Stadium of Light

Sunderland

9th · 7 pts

21:00KICK-OFF WAT

Dinamo Zagreb

18th · 4 pts

53% Sunderland

26% Draw

22% Dinamo

OUR PICK

Sunderland to win

Model probability 53% · fair odds

1.90

Expected goals

1.53 – 0.88

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.90X3.8724.62

Goals 2.5Over2.19Under1.76

Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.44

Over 1.5

69%

Over/Under 2.5@1.76

Under 2.5

57%

Both teams to score@1.85

54%

Double chance@1.28

78%

Season stats

SunderlandDinamo Zagreb

1.3Goals per game1.0

0.7Conceded per game1.3

2.33Points per game1.33

67%Win rate33%

2Goal difference-1

7Form, last 5 (pts)4

Sunderland form

LWDDL

A Coventry3–1

H Brentford3–2

H Leeds0–0

A Lech Poznan1–1

A Bournemouth2–0

Dinamo Zagreb form

LWLWW

A Rudes1–0

H HNK Rijeka2–1

H NEC Nijmegen2–4

A NK Slaven Belupo1–5

H Anderlecht1–0

Head to head

Sunderland

Draw

Dinamo

These sides haven't met recently.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Benfica3+89

2Bayer Leverkusen3+89

3Bournemouth3+79

4Ferencvarosi TC3+69

5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39

6Union St. Gilloise3+77

7Juventus3+67

8Beşiktaş3+47

9Sunderland3+27

10AZ Alkmaar3+46

Match preview

Our model makes Sunderland clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.53 for Sunderland, 0.88 for Dinamo Zagreb), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Sunderland sit 9th on 7 points; Dinamo Zagreb are 18th on 4.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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