Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland
20th · 5 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Chelsea
4th · 16 pts22% Sunderland
21% Draw
58% Chelsea
OUR PICK
Chelsea to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
1.24 – 2.13
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.61X4.8521.73
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
63%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
SunderlandChelsea0.8Goals per game2.1
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.56Points per game1.78
11%Win rate56%
-10Goal difference4
1Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sunderland form
LWDDLA Coventry3–1
H Brentford3–2
H Leeds0–0
A Lech Poznan1–1
A Bournemouth2–0
Chelsea form
WDLWWH Manchester United2–0
A Liverpool1–1
H Tottenham0–2
A Everton0–2
H Bournemouth5–1
Head to head
3
Sunderland
0
Draw
2
Chelsea
May 2026Sunderland – Chelsea2–1
Oct 2025Chelsea – Sunderland1–2
May 2017Chelsea – Sunderland5–1
Dec 2016Sunderland – Chelsea0–1
May 2016Sunderland – Chelsea3–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.73 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.24 for Sunderland, 2.13 for Chelsea), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sunderland sit 20th on 5 points; Chelsea are 4th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.