Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland
20th · 5 pts0–2FULL TIME
Brighton
3rd · 19 pts11% Sunderland
16% Draw
73% Brighton
OUR PICK
Brighton to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.36
Expected goals
0.89 – 2.56
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.17X6.3221.36
Goals 2.5Over1.50Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.12
X2
89%
Season stats
SunderlandBrighton0.8Goals per game2.7
1.9Conceded per game0.8
0.56Points per game2.11
11%Win rate67%
-10Goal difference17
1Form, last 5 (pts)12
Sunderland form
LWDDLA Coventry3–1
H Brentford3–2
H Leeds0–0
A Lech Poznan1–1
A Bournemouth2–0
Brighton form
WDLDWA Manchester City0–1
A Manchester City2–2
A Liverpool2–0
A FK Jablonec0–0
H Crystal Palace5–0
Head to head
0
Sunderland
1
Draw
3
Brighton
Oct 2026Sunderland – Brighton0–2
Mar 2026Sunderland – Brighton0–1
Dec 2025Brighton – Sunderland0–0
Aug 2011Brighton – Sunderland1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Brighton clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.36 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (0.89 for Sunderland, 2.56 for Brighton), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sunderland sit 20th on 5 points; Brighton are 3rd on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.