Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
ITASerie B · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadio Druso
Sudtirol
10th · 14 pts0–0FULL TIME
Ascoli
3rd · 19 pts26% Sudtirol
28% Draw
45% Ascoli
OUR PICK
Ascoli to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.30
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.79X3.5322.21
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.62
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.36
X2
74%
Season stats
SudtirolAscoli1.1Goals per game1.6
1.0Conceded per game0.6
1.40Points per game1.90
30%Win rate50%
1Goal difference10
3Form, last 5 (pts)9
Sudtirol form
DLDLDH Cesena1–1
A Padova2–0
H Sampdoria1–1
A Juve Stabia3–0
H Ascoli0–0
Ascoli form
DWWDDA Arezzo0–0
H Sampdoria2–0
A Catanzaro1–6
H Empoli1–1
A Sudtirol0–0
Head to head
2
Sudtirol
2
Draw
1
Ascoli
Oct 2026Sudtirol – Ascoli0–0
Feb 2024Ascoli – Sudtirol1–2
Sept 2023Sudtirol – Ascoli3–1
Apr 2023Ascoli – Sudtirol1–0
Nov 2022Sudtirol – Ascoli2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Palermo10+1226
2Modena10+820
3Ascoli10+1019
4Mantova10+418
5Avellino10+515
6Benevento10+415
7Hellas Verona10+615
8Pisa10+315
9Padova10-114
10Sudtirol10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Ascoli slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.92 for Sudtirol, 1.30 for Ascoli), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sudtirol sit 10th on 14 points; Ascoli are 3rd on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.