Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Merkur-Arena
Sturm Graz
4th · 19 pts17:00KICK-OFF WAT
Red Bull Salzburg
2nd · 27 pts22% Sturm
24% Draw
55% Red
OUR PICK
Red Bull Salzburg to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.71
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.64X4.1821.83
Goals 2.5Over1.99Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
Sturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg1.7Goals per game2.6
1.2Conceded per game0.5
1.73Points per game2.45
45%Win rate73%
6Goal difference23
8Form, last 5 (pts)13
Sturm Graz form
DLDWWA Wolfsberger AC1–1
A Austria Lustenau3–2
H Ried2–2
H Marseille1–0
H Grazer AK6–1
Red Bull Salzburg form
WWWDWH Austria Lustenau5–1
A Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz2–3
A Lask Linz1–3
A Celje2–2
H SCR Altach3–0
Head to head
1
Sturm
3
Draw
1
Red
Sept 2026Red Bull Salzburg – Sturm Graz3–0
May 2026Red Bull Salzburg – Sturm Graz1–1
Mar 2026Sturm Graz – Red Bull Salzburg1–1
Nov 2025Sturm Graz – Red Bull Salzburg1–1
Sept 2025Red Bull Salzburg – Sturm Graz0–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna11+2430
2Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes Red Bull Salzburg clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (0.98 for Sturm Graz, 1.71 for Red Bull Salzburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sturm Graz sit 4th on 19 points; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.