Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Sturm Graz
19th · 4 pts1–0FULL TIME
Marseille
34th · 0 pts44% Sturm
27% Draw
29% Marseille
OUR PICK
Sturm Graz to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.06
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X3.7223.49
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.96
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.96
NG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
Sturm GrazMarseille0.3Goals per game0.3
1.0Conceded per game2.0
1.33Points per game0.00
33%Win rate0%
-2Goal difference-5
4Form, last 5 (pts)0
Sturm Graz form
DLDWWA Wolfsberger AC1–1
A Austria Lustenau3–2
H Ried2–2
H Marseille1–0
H Grazer AK6–1
Marseille form
WWLWLH Toulouse2–0
H Le Havre4–3
A Sturm Graz1–0
A Angers2–5
H Olympiakos Piraeus0–1
Head to head
1
Sturm
0
Draw
0
Marseille
Oct 2026Sturm Graz – Marseille1–0
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Sturm Graz slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.39 for Sturm Graz, 1.06 for Marseille), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sturm Graz sit 19th on 4 points; Marseille are 34th on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.