Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
AUTBundesliga · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Sturm Graz
4th · 19 pts6–1FULL TIME
Grazer AK
9th · 10 pts66% Sturm
21% Draw
13% Grazer
OUR PICK
Sturm Graz to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.52
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.70
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.52X4.7327.70
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
Sturm GrazGrazer AK1.7Goals per game0.7
1.2Conceded per game2.5
1.73Points per game0.91
45%Win rate18%
6Goal difference-19
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Sturm Graz form
DLDWWA Wolfsberger AC1–1
A Austria Lustenau3–2
H Ried2–2
H Marseille1–0
H Grazer AK6–1
Grazer AK form
LLDLDH TSV Hartberg0–4
H SCR Altach0–4
A WSG Wattens1–1
A Sturm Graz6–1
H Red Bull Salzburg0–0
Head to head
5
Sturm
0
Draw
0
Grazer
Oct 2026Sturm Graz – Grazer AK6–1
Dec 2025Sturm Graz – Grazer AK2–1
Aug 2025Grazer AK – Sturm Graz0–3
Mar 2025Grazer AK – Sturm Graz1–2
Oct 2024Sturm Graz – Grazer AK5–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rapid Vienna11+2430
2Red Bull Salzburg11+2327
3Lask Linz11+1322
4Sturm Graz11+619
5TSV Hartberg11+117
6Ried11+116
7WSG Wattens11-312
8SCR Altach11-610
9Grazer AK11-1910
10Austria Lustenau11-168
Match preview
Our model makes Sturm Graz clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.90 for Sturm Graz, 0.70 for Grazer AK), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sturm Graz sit 4th on 19 points; Grazer AK are 9th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.