Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
66%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Merkur-Arena
Sturm Graz
19th · 4 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Celje
29th · 1 pts49% Sturm
27% Draw
24% Celje
OUR PICK
Sturm Graz to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.88
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X3.6624.23
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.79
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.79
NG
56%
Double chance@1.31
1X
76%
Season stats
Sturm GrazCelje0.3Goals per game0.7
1.0Conceded per game2.3
1.33Points per game0.33
33%Win rate0%
-2Goal difference-5
4Form, last 5 (pts)1
Sturm Graz form
DLDWWA Wolfsberger AC1–1
A Austria Lustenau3–2
H Ried2–2
H Marseille1–0
H Grazer AK6–1
Celje form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Sturm
0
Draw
0
Celje
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Sturm Graz slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.40 for Sturm Graz, 0.88 for Celje), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Sturm Graz sit 19th on 4 points; Celje are 29th on 1.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.