Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 26Wednesday, 14 October 2026 · Marienlyst Stadion
Stromsgodset
2nd · 63 pts5–1FULL TIME
Kongsvinger
3rd · 59 pts53% Stromsgodset
20% Draw
28% Kongsvinger
OUR PICK
Stromsgodset to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.90
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.67
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.90X5.0523.62
Goals 2.5Over1.31Under3.93
Both scoreGG1.36NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.31
Over 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.36
GG
73%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
StromsgodsetKongsvinger2.7Goals per game2.9
1.2Conceded per game1.6
2.17Points per game2.03
66%Win rate62%
45Goal difference36
12Form, last 5 (pts)6
Stromsgodset form
WLLWWH Moss3–0
A Molde4–1
A Strommen1–0
H Haugesund5–0
H Kongsvinger5–1
Kongsvinger form
LLLWLH Stabaek1–2
A Pors Grenland3–1
A Sogndal3–1
H Sandnes ULF4–0
A Stromsgodset5–1
Head to head
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draw
0
Kongsvinger
Oct 2026Stromsgodset – Kongsvinger5–1
Jun 2026Kongsvinger – Stromsgodset4–4
Feb 2023Kongsvinger – Stromsgodset2–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger29+3659
4Stabaek29+3358
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model makes Stromsgodset slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.33 for Stromsgodset, 1.67 for Kongsvinger), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stromsgodset sit 2nd on 63 points; Kongsvinger are 3rd on 59.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.