Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 7Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stade de la Meinau
Strasbourg
13th · 10 pts1–3FULL TIME
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 20 pts31% Strasbourg
21% Draw
49% Paris
OUR PICK
Paris Saint Germain to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
1.70 – 2.17
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.27X4.8522.05
Goals 2.5Over1.35Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.35
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
72%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain1.9Goals per game2.3
2.1Conceded per game1.1
1.11Points per game2.22
33%Win rate67%
-2Goal difference11
3Form, last 5 (pts)15
Strasbourg form
WLLLLH Auxerre5–1
A Rennes3–0
H Paris Saint Germain1–3
A Nice2–1
A Paris FC2–1
Paris Saint Germain form
WWWWWA Le Havre1–5
H Lyon2–0
H Barcelona4–2
A Strasbourg1–3
A Manchester City2–4
Head to head
1
Strasbourg
1
Draw
3
Paris
Oct 2026Strasbourg – Paris Saint Germain1–3
Feb 2026Strasbourg – Paris Saint Germain1–2
Oct 2025Paris Saint Germain – Strasbourg3–3
May 2025Strasbourg – Paris Saint Germain2–1
Oct 2024Paris Saint Germain – Strasbourg4–2
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (1.70 for Strasbourg, 2.17 for Paris Saint Germain), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Strasbourg sit 13th on 10 points; Paris Saint Germain are 1st on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.