Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 10Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City
7th · 23 pts2–3FULL TIME
Middlesbrough
1st · 28 pts38% Stoke
24% Draw
38% Middlesbrough
OUR PICK
Stoke City to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.63
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.48
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.63X4.0922.66
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
Stoke CityMiddlesbrough1.5Goals per game2.3
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.77Points per game2.15
54%Win rate62%
4Goal difference13
10Form, last 5 (pts)13
Stoke City form
WDWLWH Preston2–0
H Bristol City0–0
A Derby0–1
H Middlesbrough2–3
A Bolton1–2
Middlesbrough form
WWDWWH Charlton3–0
A Bolton1–5
H Cardiff2–2
A Stoke City2–3
H Wolves1–0
Head to head
0
Stoke
1
Draw
4
Middlesbrough
Oct 2026Stoke City – Middlesbrough2–3
Jan 2026Stoke City – Middlesbrough1–2
Sept 2025Middlesbrough – Stoke City0–0
Feb 2025Stoke City – Middlesbrough1–3
Sept 2024Middlesbrough – Stoke City2–0
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Stoke City 38%, the draw 24%, Middlesbrough 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.63 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.49 for Stoke City, 1.48 for Middlesbrough), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stoke City sit 7th on 23 points; Middlesbrough are 1st on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.