Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
ENGChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City
7th · 23 pts0–0FULL TIME
Bristol City
14th · 18 pts53% Stoke
23% Draw
23% Bristol
OUR PICK
Stoke City to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.09
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X4.2724.29
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
Stoke CityBristol City1.5Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.3
1.77Points per game1.38
54%Win rate38%
4Goal difference-2
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Stoke City form
WDWLWH Preston2–0
H Bristol City0–0
A Derby0–1
H Middlesbrough2–3
A Bolton1–2
Bristol City form
WDLLDA Bolton2–3
A Stoke City0–0
H Sheffield Utd0–1
H Blackburn0–1
A Charlton1–1
Head to head
1
Stoke
2
Draw
2
Bristol
Oct 2026Stoke City – Bristol City0–0
May 2026Bristol City – Stoke City2–0
Nov 2025Stoke City – Bristol City5–1
Feb 2025Bristol City – Stoke City2–0
Oct 2024Stoke City – Bristol City2–2
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Middlesbrough13+1328
2Swansea13+726
3Wolves13+724
4West Brom13+524
5Southampton13+1523
6Birmingham13+1023
7Stoke City13+423
8West Ham13+1522
9QPR13+520
10Sheffield Utd13+219
Match preview
Our model makes Stoke City slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.77 for Stoke City, 1.09 for Bristol City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stoke City sit 7th on 23 points; Bristol City are 14th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.