Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Edgeley Park
Stockport County
2nd · 26 pts3–1FULL TIME
Barnsley
23rd · 9 pts70% Stockport
18% Draw
12% Barnsley
OUR PICK
Stockport County to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.77
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.43X5.4628.55
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
Stockport CountyBarnsley1.9Goals per game1.0
1.0Conceded per game1.8
1.86Points per game0.75
57%Win rate17%
12Goal difference-10
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Stockport County form
WLDWWH AFC Wimbledon2–1
A Oxford United1–0
A Notts County1–1
A Doncaster0–2
H Bromley1–0
Barnsley form
DLLLLH Oxford United1–1
A Reading2–1
A Luton2–1
H Cambridge United1–2
A Stockport County3–1
Head to head
3
Stockport
2
Draw
0
Barnsley
Oct 2026Stockport County – Barnsley3–1
May 2026Barnsley – Stockport County1–3
Nov 2025Stockport County – Barnsley1–1
Feb 2025Stockport County – Barnsley2–1
Sept 2024Barnsley – Stockport County1–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Stockport County clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.20 for Stockport County, 0.77 for Barnsley), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stockport County sit 2nd on 26 points; Barnsley are 23rd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.