Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Broadhall Way
Stevenage
16th · 16 pts1–0FULL TIME
Wigan
21st · 10 pts63% Stevenage
22% Draw
15% Wigan
OUR PICK
Stevenage to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.82
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.59X4.6526.47
Goals 2.5Over1.95Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
StevenageWigan1.4Goals per game0.8
1.1Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game0.77
33%Win rate23%
4Goal difference-11
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
Stevenage form
DLWLWA Leicester2–2
H Milton Keynes Dons0–1
H Plymouth3–0
A Bradford2–0
H Wigan1–0
Wigan form
WLLLWH Bromley3–2
A Leicester3–0
A Huddersfield2–1
A Oxford United2–1
H Reading1–0
Head to head
2
Stevenage
2
Draw
1
Wigan
Oct 2026Stevenage – Wigan1–0
May 2026Stevenage – Wigan1–0
Nov 2025Wigan – Stevenage0–0
Jan 2025Stevenage – Wigan1–2
Sept 2024Wigan – Stevenage0–0
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model makes Stevenage clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.91 for Stevenage, 0.82 for Wigan), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stevenage sit 16th on 16 points; Wigan are 21st on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.