Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
ENGLeague One · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · Broadhall Way
Stevenage
16th · 16 pts3–0FULL TIME
Plymouth
5th · 23 pts39% Stevenage
27% Draw
35% Plymouth
OUR PICK
Stevenage to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.58
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.23
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.58X3.7522.89
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
StevenagePlymouth1.4Goals per game1.5
1.1Conceded per game1.4
1.33Points per game1.64
33%Win rate50%
4Goal difference2
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Stevenage form
DLWLWA Leicester2–2
H Milton Keynes Dons0–1
H Plymouth3–0
A Bradford2–0
H Wigan1–0
Plymouth form
DWLLWH Reading0–0
A Cambridge United2–3
A Stevenage3–0
H Huddersfield0–2
H AFC Wimbledon2–1
Head to head
1
Stevenage
1
Draw
3
Plymouth
Oct 2026Stevenage – Plymouth3–0
Mar 2026Plymouth – Stevenage1–0
Jan 2026Stevenage – Plymouth1–1
Jan 2020Stevenage – Plymouth1–2
Dec 2019Plymouth – Stevenage2–1
League One table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Huddersfield13+1628
2Stockport County14+1226
3Oxford United12+923
4Luton13+623
5Plymouth14+223
6Reading13+1222
7Bradford13+222
8Cambridge United14021
9Sheffield Wednesday13+820
10Leicester13+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Stevenage 39%, the draw 27%, Plymouth 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.32 for Stevenage, 1.23 for Plymouth), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stevenage sit 16th on 16 points; Plymouth are 5th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.