ENGLeague One · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Broadhall Way

Stevenage

16th · 16 pts

0–1FULL TIME

Milton Keynes Dons

11th · 18 pts

53% Stevenage

22% Draw

25% Milton

OUR PICK

Stevenage to win

Model probability 53% · fair odds

1.88

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.24

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.88X4.5024.07

Goals 2.5Over1.64Under2.42

Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.21

Over 1.5

82%

Over/Under 2.5@1.64

Over 2.5

61%

Both teams to score@1.65

61%

Double chance@1.29

78%

Season stats

StevenageMilton Keynes Dons

1.4Goals per game1.7

1.1Conceded per game1.5

1.33Points per game1.38

33%Win rate31%

4Goal difference2

7Form, last 5 (pts)12

Stevenage form

DLWLW

A Leicester2–2

H Milton Keynes Dons0–1

H Plymouth3–0

A Bradford2–0

H Wigan1–0

Milton Keynes Dons form

WWWLW

H Doncaster6–1

H Bromley4–1

A Stevenage0–1

A Blackpool2–0

H Luton2–1

Head to head

Stevenage

Draw

Milton

Oct 2026Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons0–1

Jul 2025Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons2–1

Nov 2021Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons2–1

Nov 2021Milton Keynes Dons – Stevenage2–2

Oct 2020Stevenage – Milton Keynes Dons2–3

League One table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Huddersfield13+1628

2Stockport County14+1226

3Oxford United12+923

4Luton13+623

5Plymouth14+223

6Reading13+1222

7Bradford13+222

8Cambridge United14021

9Sheffield Wednesday13+820

10Leicester13+319

Match preview

Our model makes Stevenage slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.92 for Stevenage, 1.24 for Milton Keynes Dons), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Stevenage sit 16th on 16 points; Milton Keynes Dons are 11th on 18.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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