Over 1.5 goals@1.72
Over 1.5
58%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Ochilview Park
Stenhousemuir
4th · 23 pts1–1FULL TIME
Raith Rovers
2nd · 24 pts26% Stenhousemuir
31% Draw
44% Raith
OUR PICK
Raith Rovers to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.88X3.2722.29
Goals 2.5Over3.04Under1.45
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.61
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.45
Under 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.61
NG
62%
Double chance@1.35
X2
74%
Season stats
StenhousemuirRaith Rovers1.0Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game0.7
1.77Points per game1.85
54%Win rate54%
1Goal difference11
1Form, last 5 (pts)10
Stenhousemuir form
LLLDLH Livingston0–3
H Dunfermline0–1
A Partick3–0
H Raith Rovers1–1
A Inverness CT2–0
Raith Rovers form
WLDWWA Arbroath0–4
H Inverness CT0–2
A Stenhousemuir1–1
H Queen's Park2–0
A Morton1–2
Head to head
0
Stenhousemuir
3
Draw
2
Raith
Oct 2026Stenhousemuir – Raith Rovers1–1
Aug 2026Raith Rovers – Stenhousemuir1–1
Apr 2019Stenhousemuir – Raith Rovers1–1
Jan 2019Raith Rovers – Stenhousemuir5–1
Nov 2018Stenhousemuir – Raith Rovers1–3
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Raith Rovers slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.81 for Stenhousemuir, 1.15 for Raith Rovers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stenhousemuir sit 4th on 23 points; Raith Rovers are 2nd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.