Over 1.5 goals@1.77
Over 1.5
57%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Ochilview Park
Stenhousemuir
4th · 23 pts0–3FULL TIME
Livingston
5th · 20 pts41% Stenhousemuir
31% Draw
28% Livingston
OUR PICK
Stenhousemuir to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.46
Expected goals
1.07 – 0.83
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.46X3.1723.59
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.42
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.59
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.59
NG
63%
Double chance@1.39
1X
72%
Season stats
StenhousemuirLivingston1.0Goals per game1.4
0.9Conceded per game0.8
1.77Points per game1.54
54%Win rate46%
1Goal difference7
1Form, last 5 (pts)7
Stenhousemuir form
LLLDLH Livingston0–3
H Dunfermline0–1
A Partick3–0
H Raith Rovers1–1
A Inverness CT2–0
Livingston form
WWDLLA Stenhousemuir0–3
H Arbroath1–0
A Dunfermline0–0
H Partick1–2
H Ayr Utd1–2
Head to head
1
Stenhousemuir
1
Draw
3
Livingston
Oct 2026Stenhousemuir – Livingston0–3
Sept 2026Livingston – Stenhousemuir0–1
Jul 2026Stenhousemuir – Livingston0–0
Jan 2023Stenhousemuir – Livingston1–3
Nov 2020Stenhousemuir – Livingston0–4
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Stenhousemuir slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 31% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (1.07 for Stenhousemuir, 0.83 for Livingston), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stenhousemuir sit 4th on 23 points; Livingston are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.