Over 1.5 goals@1.99
Over 1.5
50%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 9Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Ochilview Park
Stenhousemuir
4th · 23 pts0–1FULL TIME
Dunfermline
3rd · 24 pts30% Stenhousemuir
34% Draw
36% Dunfermline
OUR PICK
Dunfermline to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.78
Expected goals
0.79 – 0.90
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.35X2.9322.78
Goals 2.5Over3.93Under1.32
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.32
Under 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.48
NG
68%
Double chance@1.43
X2
70%
Season stats
StenhousemuirDunfermline1.0Goals per game1.2
0.9Conceded per game0.5
1.77Points per game1.85
54%Win rate46%
1Goal difference8
1Form, last 5 (pts)11
Stenhousemuir form
LLLDLH Livingston0–3
H Dunfermline0–1
A Partick3–0
H Raith Rovers1–1
A Inverness CT2–0
Dunfermline form
WWWDDH Inverness CT5–1
A Stenhousemuir0–1
A Queen's Park0–1
H Partick1–1
H Livingston0–0
Head to head
0
Stenhousemuir
0
Draw
5
Dunfermline
Oct 2026Stenhousemuir – Dunfermline0–1
Jan 2025Dunfermline – Stenhousemuir3–0
Jul 2021Dunfermline – Stenhousemuir4–1
Mar 2016Dunfermline – Stenhousemuir5–0
Feb 2016Stenhousemuir – Dunfermline0–3
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Stenhousemuir 30%, the draw 34%, Dunfermline 36%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.7 goals in total (0.79 for Stenhousemuir, 0.90 for Dunfermline), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stenhousemuir sit 4th on 23 points; Dunfermline are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.