Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
BELJupiler Pro League · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Maurice Dufrasne
Standard Liege
9th · 12 pts0–1FULL TIME
Charleroi
4th · 24 pts34% Standard
22% Draw
44% Charleroi
OUR PICK
Charleroi to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.92X4.5122.29
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.47NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.47
GG
68%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
Standard LiegeCharleroi1.5Goals per game2.1
1.6Conceded per game1.2
1.20Points per game2.40
30%Win rate80%
-1Goal difference9
1Form, last 5 (pts)12
Standard Liege form
DLWLLH Kortrijk1–1
A Genk2–1
H Dender2–0
H Charleroi0–1
H Lens0–2
Charleroi form
WLWWWH RAAL La Louvière5–2
A Antwerp3–0
A Albert Quévy-Mons0–1
A Standard Liege0–1
H Cercle Brugge3–2
Head to head
2
Standard
0
Draw
3
Charleroi
Oct 2026Standard Liege – Charleroi0–1
May 2026Standard Liege – Charleroi0–2
Apr 2026Charleroi – Standard Liege1–2
Jan 2026Charleroi – Standard Liege2–0
Oct 2025Standard Liege – Charleroi3–1
Jupiler Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club Brugge KV10+1827
2Union St. Gilloise10+2226
3Gent10+1325
4Charleroi10+924
5Anderlecht10+219
6Genk10+415
7Lommel United10+215
8KVC Westerlo10014
9Standard Liege10-112
10Zulte Waregem10-411
Match preview
Our model makes Charleroi slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.63 for Standard Liege, 1.86 for Charleroi), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Standard Liege sit 9th on 12 points; Charleroi are 4th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.