Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
FRALigue 1 · Matchday 8Friday, 23 October 2026 · Stade Francis-Le-Blé
Stade Brestois 29
10th · 12 pts1–2FULL TIME
Nice
8th · 14 pts54% Stade
23% Draw
23% Nice
OUR PICK
Stade Brestois 29 to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.85
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.12
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.85X4.3824.35
Goals 2.5Over1.76Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.76
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
Stade Brestois 29Nice1.8Goals per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.33Points per game1.56
33%Win rate44%
4Goal difference1
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
Stade Brestois 29 form
WLDWDA Lorient0–2
H Nice1–2
A Lille1–1
H Angers5–1
H Monza2–2
Nice form
WWLWWH Rennes5–2
A Stade Brestois 291–2
A Lyon2–1
H Strasbourg2–1
H Lille2–1
Head to head
1
Stade
1
Draw
3
Nice
Oct 2026Stade Brestois 29 – Nice1–2
Feb 2026Nice – Stade Brestois 292–2
Sept 2025Stade Brestois 29 – Nice4–1
May 2025Nice – Stade Brestois 296–0
Nov 2024Stade Brestois 29 – Nice0–1
Ligue 1 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain9+1120
2Lille9+618
3Lyon9+817
4Paris FC9+617
5Rennes9+116
6Marseille9+715
7Monaco9+215
8Nice9+114
9Lens9+313
10Stade Brestois 299+412
Match preview
Our model makes Stade Brestois 29 clear favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.85 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.84 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.12 for Nice), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stade Brestois 29 sit 10th on 12 points; Nice are 8th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.