Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 30Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Nadderud Stadion
Stabaek
4th · 55 pts13:00KICK-OFF WAT
Stromsgodset
2nd · 63 pts41% Stabaek
23% Draw
36% Stromsgodset
OUR PICK
Stabaek to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.60
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.45X4.3522.76
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
StabaekStromsgodset2.4Goals per game2.7
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.96Points per game2.17
61%Win rate66%
32Goal difference45
10Form, last 5 (pts)12
Stabaek form
WWWWDA Kongsvinger1–2
H ODD Ballklubb2–0
A Asane0–1
H Sandnes ULF4–1
H Strommen2–2
Stromsgodset form
WLLWWH Moss2–0
A Molde4–1
A Strommen1–0
H Haugesund5–0
H Kongsvinger5–1
Head to head
0
Stabaek
1
Draw
4
Stromsgodset
Apr 2026Stromsgodset – Stabaek2–1
Feb 2025Stabaek – Stromsgodset1–4
Sept 2023Stromsgodset – Stabaek2–1
Jul 2023Stabaek – Stromsgodset0–1
Sept 2021Stabaek – Stromsgodset0–0
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger28+3759
4Stabaek28+3255
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Stabaek 41%, the draw 23%, Stromsgodset 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.71 for Stabaek, 1.60 for Stromsgodset), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Stabaek sit 4th on 55 points; Stromsgodset are 2nd on 63.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.