NOR1. Division · Matchday 25Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Nadderud Stadion

Stabaek

4th · 55 pts

2–2FULL TIME

Strommen

10th · 36 pts

75% Stabaek

14% Draw

11% Strommen

OUR PICK

Stabaek to win

Model probability 75% · fair odds

1.34

Expected goals

2.87 – 1.04

Confidence

Very high

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.34X6.9629.16

Goals 2.5Over1.34Under3.77

Both scoreGG1.64NG2.42

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.11

Over 1.5

90%

Over/Under 2.5@1.34

Over 2.5

75%

Both teams to score@1.64

61%

Double chance@1.12

89%

Season stats

StabaekStrommen

2.4Goals per game1.7

1.2Conceded per game2.1

1.96Points per game1.24

61%Win rate34%

32Goal difference-12

10Form, last 5 (pts)10

Stabaek form

WWWWD

A Kongsvinger1–2

H ODD Ballklubb2–0

A Asane0–1

H Sandnes ULF4–1

H Strommen2–2

Strommen form

LWWWD

A Egersund3–1

H Stromsgodset1–0

A ODD Ballklubb1–2

H Asane6–1

A Stabaek2–2

Head to head

Stabaek

Draw

Strommen

Oct 2026Stabaek – Strommen2–2

Jun 2026Strommen – Stabaek1–0

1. Division table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Haugesund29+3665

2Stromsgodset29+4563

3Kongsvinger28+3759

4Stabaek28+3255

5ODD Ballklubb29+1146

6Bryne29+243

7Ranheim29+441

8Egersund29-938

9hodd29-1038

10Strommen29-1236

Match preview

Our model makes Stabaek clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.87 for Stabaek, 1.04 for Strommen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Stabaek sit 4th on 55 points; Strommen are 10th on 36.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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