Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 10Saturday, 24 October 2026 · The SMISA Stadium
ST Mirren
8th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
Dundee
5th · 17 pts23% ST
25% Draw
52% Dundee
OUR PICK
Dundee to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.61
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.35X4.0121.92
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.00
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@2.00
NG
50%
Double chance@1.30
X2
77%
Season stats
ST MirrenDundee1.0Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game1.2
1.17Points per game1.55
33%Win rate45%
-8Goal difference4
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
ST Mirren form
LDWLLA Motherwell1–0
H Hibernian1–1
H Dundee2–1
A Aberdeen3–1
A Heart Of Midlothian5–0
Dundee form
WLDWWH Kilmarnock3–1
A ST Mirren2–1
H Rangers2–2
A Falkirk1–2
H Motherwell2–1
Head to head
2
ST
1
Draw
2
Dundee
Oct 2026ST Mirren – Dundee2–1
May 2026Dundee – ST Mirren1–0
Jan 2026ST Mirren – Dundee0–0
Nov 2025Dundee – ST Mirren3–1
Sept 2025ST Mirren – Dundee1–0
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model makes Dundee slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.98 for ST Mirren, 1.61 for Dundee), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
ST Mirren sit 8th on 14 points; Dundee are 5th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.