Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Thursday, 15 October 2026 · CITYPARK
St. Louis City
4th · 51 pts0–0FULL TIME
Vancouver Whitecaps
1st · 61 pts30% St.
23% Draw
47% Vancouver
OUR PICK
Vancouver Whitecaps to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.81
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.37X4.3622.11
Goals 2.5Over1.61Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.61
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
St. Louis CityVancouver Whitecaps1.8Goals per game2.2
1.5Conceded per game1.0
1.55Points per game1.85
42%Win rate55%
10Goal difference38
1Form, last 5 (pts)10
St. Louis City form
LLLDLH San Diego0–1
H Portland Timbers2–3
A Real Salt Lake3–0
A Columbus Crew0–0
A Minnesota United FC3–2
Vancouver Whitecaps form
WWLWDH Seattle Sounders5–1
H San Diego4–1
A Colorado Rapids1–0
A Austin1–2
A St. Louis City0–0
Head to head
1
St.
2
Draw
2
Vancouver
Oct 2026St. Louis City – Vancouver Whitecaps0–0
Sept 2026Vancouver Whitecaps – St. Louis City1–3
Aug 2025Vancouver Whitecaps – St. Louis City3–2
Apr 2025St. Louis City – Vancouver Whitecaps0–0
Jul 2024St. Louis City – Vancouver Whitecaps1–4
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.39 for St. Louis City, 1.81 for Vancouver Whitecaps), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
St. Louis City sit 4th on 51 points; Vancouver Whitecaps are 1st on 61.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.